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Author Topic: Bull Market Extensions
Walter-
Deemer
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Post Bull Market Extensions
on: November 2, 2012, 13:21
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I recently wrote a memo updating the Bull Market Extensions discussion on pages 131-32 of the book. It's available here: http://walterdeemer.com/102112A.pdf

Walter-
Deemer
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Post Re: Bull Market Extensions
on: November 10, 2012, 14:44
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This is a followup to the previous memo which answers a couple of questions I was asked afterwards: http://walterdeemer.com/110212.pdf
kellyblack

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Post Re: Bull Market Extensions
on: November 13, 2012, 16:11
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Hi Walter,
Thanks for your wonderful book.
On the topic of the four-year cycle, I was wondering if we are already in a correction mode. Certainly the cyclicals, especially the multinationals and the techs have been bludgeoned latedly. I wonder if the the defensive dividend-paying stocks are staying up because they have become bond replacements.
Walter-
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Post Re: Bull Market Extensions
on: November 13, 2012, 16:29
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I think it's too soon to know one way or the other... before this, we never had a bull market with more than one 10%-plus intermediate correction, but we've had three so far in this one: 17.1% in April-June 2010, 21.6% in May-October 2011 and 10.9% in April-June 2012. This one's only carried 7% thus far, so it's impossible (for me, at least) to say if it's the start of something big or not yet. The Four-Year Cycle, though, warns us that it could be -- which is why I think we need to be focused more on risk than reward at this juncture.

And many thanks for the kind words!

Walter Deemer
kellyblack

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Post Re: Bull Market Extensions
on: November 13, 2012, 23:59
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Thanks Walter,

I know I should look it up, but I'm guessing the end of each of those corrections corresponds with QE 1, 2, and 3. Do we have any precedents to look at for so much intervention?

Kelly Black
Walter-
Deemer
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Post Re: Bull Market Extensions
on: November 14, 2012, 12:18
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Not in the United States... but I'm told there have been no fewer than eight rounds of quantitative easing in Japan since 2001 (which haven't helped either the Japanese economy or the Japanese stock market).

And just for the record:

QE1: Announced November 24, 2008, began January 1, 2009, ended March 31, 2010.
QE2: Hinted at August 27, 2010, announced and began November 3, 2010, ended June 30, 2011.
QE3 (a/k/a QE Infinity): Announced and began September 13, 2012.

-- Walter Deemer
kellyblack

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Post Re: Bull Market Extensions
on: November 14, 2012, 12:53
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Got it.
Walter-
Deemer
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Post Re: Bull Market Extensions
on: February 22, 2013, 11:30
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Here's a more recent update on the Four-Year Cycle and Bull Market Extensions:

http://walterdeemer.com/012713.pdf
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