The Four-Year Cycle didn't work as well as the (I think) mythological Presidential Cycle did in 2012. Here's a link to a memo I recently wrote on the subject, which also notes that we have another Bull Market Extension on our hands: http://walterdeemer.com/121412A.pdf

I'm a bit late jumping in here but I have a few observations.

First, a cycle or repetitive pattern should always be counted as starting from the same point. I happen to use October of years divisible by 4 with a remainder of 0.5. It is arbitrary but it works.

That means 2008 (2009) wasn't a 4-yr low by my lights. However, every once in a while, you do get a low in the middle of a 12-hr period. 2008 fits as did 1932. When this happens, the next 4-yr low doesn't work (2010) but the following one does (2014?). Also, it will turn out that the previous low probably didn't work either (2006) but nobody would know that at the time.

I prefer pattern to cycle because it isn't sinusoidal. As I measure the pattern it is up for 31 months and down for 17. The timing of the high point is never as good as the low, but it is a useful indication that you are pretty late in the game. However, based on what I said above, that probably doesn't mean much in the current cycle.