Our 30-Year Track Record

"I don't usually like to dwell on my past track record; sure, it's terrific -- but I'm more concerned about what I do in the future than what I did in the past. Some people insist on seeing a track record, though; for them, we present some highlights of the past 30 years."

-- Walter Deemer

"Today's announcement will likely mark the peak of the current wave of speculation. The downside potential for some individual stocks is upwards of 50%." -- February, 1969

Between February 1969 and May 1973, the ASE Market Value Index fell from 160 to 75 -- and it took more than nine years for it to recover to where it was in February, 1969.

"Institutional-quality growth stocks have never been as exploited as they are now." -- June, 1973

During the next 17 months, an average of 60 institutional-quality growth stocks declined just over 50% -- and their relative underperformance continued into 1977.

"We are in a major bull market!" -- January 13, 1975

The S&P 500 rose 33% during the next six months -- and a total of 50% by the time it reached its bull market peak in September, 1976.

"The market achieved 'breakaway momentum' yesterday -- conclusive evidence that a bona fide bull market is underway." -- August 24, 1982

The S&P, in virtually a straight-line advance, gained 51% during the next ten months.

"The consensus sees little risk in the market here. The Mansfield chart service recently surveyed 30 technicians; only one expected the DJIA (2600) to move below 2450 between now and the end of December. We disagree; the evidence suggests the risks could be a lot higher than that." -- September 25, 1987.

They sure were...

"The current 'frightening-looking' lurch to the downside could, very easily, be the final wrap-up of the market's testing/restabilization process. We think you should use this decline to move to a fully-invested position." -- December 4, 1987

Unlike many forecasters, who remained bearish long past the ensuing rally, we called the 1987 market right BOTH ways.

"A lot of people think Monday's selloff was another 'non-event'. We disagree; it was preceded by earnings shortfalls and significant technical deterioration. It also seems likely that the economy is in a recession, or about to enter one, given the very poor recent action in our cyclical averages." -- July 27, 1990

The stock market had just begun a decline from 3000 to below 2400 -- and the economy entered a recession in July 1990.

"The perquisites of a major bottom in the stock market are now in place." -- January 11, 1991

The stock market launched an explosive rally the following week.

"Why isn't this a bear market? Because none of the preconditions for a bear market (any one of which would be a bull-killer) have yet materialized." -- May 27, 1994

The stock market, despite the forecasts of a horde of analysts, did NOT stage a bear market in 1994.

"The intermediate-term evidence strongly suggests that the rally will continue for at least another few months." -- January 6, 1995

How many stock market analysts do YOU know that were bullish in the first week of 1995?

"The risk of being in the stock market has now become significantly greater than the risk of being out of it -- and if you don't sell ‘too soon' it may be very difficult to sell at all. I therefore recommend that you start to raise some cash reserves -- right here and right now." - July 25, 1997

This was the first defensive move we recommended in the stock market in more than two years -- and was followed, two months later, by a one-day 500 point decline that forced the NYSE to close early for the first (and so far, the only) time.

"We expect the market to make a significant short-term bottom sometime during the coming week." -- December 12, 1997

It did.

"TAKE SOME MONEY OFF THE TABLE! Sell stocks. Buy bonds." -- April 17, 1998

We couldn't have made it any plainer than that.

"The stock market changed its spots -- dramatically -- at 3:15 yesterday afternoon, and yesterday's 4%-plus rally suggests that October 8th was a primary low." -- October 16, 1998

That interest-rate cut by the Fed certainly did lead to a much different market environment in the months ahead!

"Small-cap Japanese stocks are one of the most attractive asset classes in the world." -- December 11, 1998

Our insights aren't confined to just the U. S. market; this statement (which we repeated week after week) was followed by a 90%-plus gain in Fidelity's Japan Small Companies Fund in the first half of 1999!