The Four-Year Cycle, in my opinion, is very much on track here. The last Four-Year Cycle bottom was in the first quarter of 2009. Most global stock markets, including most European markets and most emerging markets, topped our in Year Two (2011) – which is “normal”. In addition a few of the weakest ones, including Japan, China, Italy and Spain, peaked in 2010 and have remained weak ever since – which is also “normal”.

The U. S. market, though, was an outlier, not peaking until Year Three: 2012. This, I think, is giving American investors a false impression of the Four-Year Cycle; looking at, say, the EAFE (Europe and Far East) index will give you a much more accurate picture.

I think, then, that the Four-Year Cycle is alive and well and is functioning relatively normally. This suggests that stock prices are likely to be generally – generally – under pressure until sometime next year.

Caveat: If the Fed or Europeans start printing money like crazy all bets are off – for the time being.

-- Walter Deemer

Hi Walter

I just finished reading your book last night and thoroughly enjoyed it. Thank you. its a plasure to read something from someone with many decades of experience in the field.

An interesting thought occured to me when looking at your chart of the 4 year cycle. In fact tis so simple and obvious I dont know why I never thought of it before. From a long-term term investing point of view, one should look to buy agressuvely when the 4 year cycle makes a bottom (confirmed with some basic techncials) and then look ot selll (exit) after 2-3 years (again confirmed with some basic technical studies). Then simply to sit on the sideliens until the 4 year cycle bottoms again.

Obviuoly its not an exact science by any means (gettign the 4 year bottom), but to me this seems like a strategy that is very worthy of looking into and using. I'd appreciate if you have any thoughts/comments on this idea.

Regards

Colin

Yes, I guess that why one needs some basic technical indicators eg trendlines, reversal weeks/months etc to help confirm. I guess one approach is to start buying is say thirds once the 4 year bottom time mark is reached and buy another third etc if t continues dropping. one probably cant go too far wrong then.

But based on your reply - is there then a 4 year cycle in all the main stock markets around the world? ( I guess they all basically follow the US).

Thanks.

Interesting. Thank you.

BTW, I thought I'd let you know, referrring to your page in the book of a $25 000 ZIM note: I live in South Africa, and our domestic cleaner is from zimbabwe. Today she brought me a $100 Billion Zim dollar note.!! Hard to believe. She says she'll try find me a 'trillion' dollar note. Will be happy to scan you a copy if you like.

(Interestingly in 1980, before the change of govt there, the Zim$ was stronger than hte USD.

Regards
Colin

Thank you for the commentary.