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Author Topic: Other Asset Classes
Marcy

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Post Other Asset Classes
on: July 17, 2012, 18:05
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Hello Walter

What a great book! You quote Ray DeVoe, saying, “more money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun”, which leads to my questions:

1. Can you use technical analysis with other asset classes such as bonds? Ie bond ETF’s or bond mutual funds?
2. You mention the long term Debt Cycle and the Interest-Rate Cycle, which correlate with the Kondratieff cycle…..are there any shorter term cycles to be aware of? Is there anything like the 4 year cycle with debt/fixed income?

Thank you,

Marcy

Walter-
Deemer
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Posts: 33
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Post Re: Other Asset Classes
on: July 18, 2012, 09:10
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1. Can you use technical analysis with other asset classes such as bonds? Ie bond ETF’s or bond mutual funds?

Absolutely! Technical analysis can be used with any financial instrument that is relatively actively traded in a public market (or tied, like funds are, to things that are relatively actively traded in a public market), including -- but absolutely not limited to -- bonds (from Treasuries to high-yield bond funds). gold, ad infinitum. The only reason I confined myself to stocks in the book is because that's what I've been following all my life.

2. You mention the long term Debt Cycle and the Interest-Rate Cycle, which correlate with the Kondratieff cycle…..are there any shorter term cycles to be aware of? Is there anything like the 4 year cycle with debt/fixed income?

I honestly don't know the answer to that one. I'm pretty sure that there must be recurring cycles in interest rates, but I've postponed studying the debt markets at any great length until I figure the stock market out.

Good questions! Thanks for asking...

-- Walter Deemer

Marcy

Posts: 6
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Post Re: Other Asset Classes
on: July 18, 2012, 15:08
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How great to use Technical analysis with other asset classes. After a 30 year bull market in bonds; it could come in very handy! For other asset classes, ie bonds, would you continue to use the Basic Chart with a 50-day moving average you mention on page 82? Also for relative-strength would you use an average that correlates to that asset class?

Thank you,
Marcy

Walter-
Deemer
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Posts: 33
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Post Re: Other Asset Classes
on: July 18, 2012, 16:56
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For other asset classes, ie bonds, would you continue to use the Basic Chart with a 50-day moving average you mention on page 82?

Yes... but I'd suggest also trying moving averages of other lengths, too, since other financial markets may behave differently than the stock market I'm used to. DecisionPoint makes this very easy to do (you just plug a different number into the box next to the moving average indicator). I'd also suggest trying the "moving averages of other lengths" on earlier time periods than the default one that "fills the chart" so you don't end up with one that works perfectly in the most recent time period but performs horribly before that. (Again, DecisionPoint makes this very easy to do; but I suggest that you make the "earlier time periods" about the same length as the default one so the charts are visually comparable.)

And by the way, and for whatever it's worth, I usually use 13-day and 63-day moving averages for stocks.

Also for relative-strength would you use an average that correlates to that asset class?

Yes and no. Yes, to see how the particular financial instrument compares to the asset class in general -- but you can also compare a non-stock financial instrument (bonds, gold, et al) to the S&P to see whether it's a better-looking investment than SPY or an index fund.

-- Walter Deemer

Marcy

Posts: 6
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Post Re: Other Asset Classes
on: July 23, 2012, 16:45
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Thank you, that is very helpful....more interesting things to explore in DecisionPoint. Decision Point is great, by the way. Another excellent resource from your book!

Marcy

Marcy

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Post Re: Other Asset Classes
on: August 1, 2012, 17:38
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Hi Walter

You mentioned above that you "usually use 13-day and 63-day moving averages for stocks"; why do you like those particular averages?

Thanks,
Marcy

Walter-
Deemer
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Posts: 33
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Post Re: Other Asset Classes
on: August 1, 2012, 17:46
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Simply because they seem to fit the charts I use better than anything else. Moving average behavior is always changing, though; one of my analysis programs (Metastock) has a profitability tester, and I can us it to calculate the very best moving average to use over any given period of time. Trouble is, it won't be the very best moving average to use over any other given period of time -- so you have to work with something you're comfortable with that's "good" and not expect perfection. The 13-day and 63-day moving averages fill that bill for me...

Walter Deemer

Marcy

Posts: 6
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Post Re: Other Asset Classes
on: August 1, 2012, 18:03
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Ok. So if I'm looking at a stock and the 13 day moving average crosses the the 63 day moving average, is that a good buy signal or strong signal? Relative strength up the last two weeks on the same stock. Thanks! Marcy

Walter-
Deemer
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Post Re: Other Asset Classes
on: August 1, 2012, 18:37
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If the 13 day moving average crosses the the 63 day moving average, that's very good. And if relative strength is up the last two weeks, that's even better. But you have to put that into perspective: Are you early or late in a market move? Is your stock in an early-moving sector (financials) or a late-moving one (energy)? And is it the first in its group to generate the moving average crossings -- or the last? Etc., etc.

Life is not simple. Neither is investing. The moving average crossing/relative strength, though, does put the odds in your favor.

Walter Deemer

Marcy

Posts: 6
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Post Re: Other Asset Classes
on: August 2, 2012, 16:23
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I see; dig deep and have a broad perspective. After finding a stock that meets the wider buy criteria, can you give some pointers on selling? You mention on page 69 to "sell stocks you own if they fall below a long term moving average of say 30 weeks", would you also use the 13 day and 63 day moving average mentioned above if the 13 day drops below the 63 moving average?

Thank you!

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